On the eve of the Spring Festival, the price of the
Steel market in China showed a certain degree of upward trend. The overall market trading atmosphere was better than expected, but the post - festival price trend is subject to certain uncertainties due to various factors.
According to relevant market monitoring data, as of January 18th, the average price of 20mm grade III earthquake - resistant deformed steel bars in major cities across the country was 3,468 yuan per ton, an increase of 46 yuan per ton compared with the previous week. The average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed
Wire Rods was 3,642 yuan per ton, an increase of 53 yuan per ton compared with the previous week. The prices of some steel products in Tangshan steel market also increased slightly. For example, the price of I - beams was 3,430 yuan per ton, angle steel was 3,370 yuan per ton, and channel steel was 3,350 - 3,360 yuan per ton.
From the market situation, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, although downstream projects have gradually suspended work, middlemen's locking of goods and terminal stocking are relatively good, which has promoted a steady and slight upward movement of prices. At the macro level, in 2024, China's economic operation has been stable with progress, and the main development goals have been successfully achieved. In December, the net financing of government bonds reached 175.66 billion yuan, an increase of 82.42 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, supporting the acceleration of infrastructure investment. The sales volume of commercial housing achieved positive year - on - year growth in both November and December, which has boosted market confidence to a certain extent. At the same time, the continued low - level operation of inventory has also provided some support for the rise in
Steel Prices. Although the social inventory in the market is still increasing, the growth rate is basically in line with expectations.
However, the post - festival trend of steel prices faces many uncertainties. On the one hand, against the background of intensifying overseas geopolitical conflicts and financial pressures, the market's positive expectations for domestic policy responses have been further strengthened. However, the rapid price increase before the festival may have partially overdrawn the post - festival market's upward space, increasing the requirements for the intensity of post - festival demand recovery. On the other hand, after the festival, the resumption of work will still mainly focus on existing projects, with few newly approved projects. Moreover, the capital availability at construction sites before the festival is generally weaker than the same period last year, which may drag down the recovery of demand in the later stage.
On the supply side, the steel mill production plans show that the resumption of production will accelerate after the Lantern Festival. It is expected that the daily average molten iron output in the country will rise to 2.3 million tons by the end of February. If the output recovery speed is faster than the demand recovery speed, the mismatch between supply and demand may lead to price callback pressure in late February.
Overall, before the Spring Festival, the steel market has seen a price increase under the combined effects of positive macro - expectations, low inventory, and a less - sluggish demand in the off - season. However, after the festival, the market is facing multiple tests such as the intensity of demand recovery, the speed of output recovery, and the uncertainty of overseas policies. The trend of steel prices is uncertain, and all parties in the market need to pay close attention to relevant developments.
